MODEL VERDICT
Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $140.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $134.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $135.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $134.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $133.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $152.92 | +9.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $127.62 | -9.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $98.47 | -29.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $139.76 | -0.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $22.14 | -84.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $93.12 | -33.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $59.50 | -57.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $14.77 | -89.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $41.44 | -70.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $124.93 | -11.0% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $124 | $137 | $149 | $161 | $174 |
| Conservative (12%) | $130 | $143 | $156 | $169 | $182 |
| Base Case (19.1%) | $137 | $151 | $165 | $179 | $192 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $145 | $160 | $174 | $189 | $203 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.23 | 24.06 | 21.90 | 34.59 | 6.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.57 | 25.41 | 22.68 | 32.60 | 4.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.62 | 17.16 | 15.22 | 20.72 | 1.86 |
| P/FCF | 38.70 | 17.48 | 15.61 | 166.44 | 56.35 |
| P/FFO | 15.02 | 14.39 | 12.17 | 18.64 | 2.16 |
| P/AFFO | 18.36 | 17.85 | 15.45 | 23.05 | 2.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.44 | 8.92 | 6.98 | 12.55 | 2.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.50 | 5.35 | 4.72 | 6.88 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LAMR's fair value at $124.93 vs the current price of $140.35, implying -11.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $124.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $108.92 (P10) to $132.93 (P90), with a median of $120.43.
LAMR's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 16.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +50.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover LAMR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $145.00 (range: $140.00 — $150.00), implying +3.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 25.9% is 5.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (20.8%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$126. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LAMR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1010.0% to approximately $126. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.