MODEL VERDICT
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $512.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $513.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $592.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $611.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $613.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $625.19 | +21.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $573.68 | +11.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $503.53 | -1.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $677.46 | +32.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $672.24 | +31.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $686.02 | +33.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $669.78 | +30.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $626.90 | +22.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $503.53 | -1.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $676.35 | +31.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $643.41 | +25.5% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $438 | $482 | $526 | $570 | $614 |
| Conservative (5%) | $451 | $496 | $542 | $587 | $632 |
| Base Case (-2.4%) | $419 | $461 | $503 | $545 | $587 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $416 | $457 | $499 | $540 | $582 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.74 | 17.74 | 14.61 | 22.51 | 3.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.94 | 15.41 | 12.33 | 19.41 | 2.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.17 | 13.07 | 10.17 | 15.63 | 2.13 |
| P/FCF | 17.83 | 18.28 | 12.81 | 21.99 | 3.21 |
| P/FFO | 15.45 | 14.89 | 12.29 | 19.57 | 2.77 |
| P/AFFO | 20.11 | 18.62 | 15.70 | 27.48 | 4.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 18.00 | 16.66 | 9.00 | 34.85 | 8.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.66 | 1.64 | 1.47 | 1.95 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LMT's fair value at $643.41 vs the current price of $512.77, implying +25.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $643.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $520.17 (P10) to $624.86 (P90), with a median of $571.11.
LMT's current P/E of 23.9x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +1.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
37 analysts cover LMT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $635.11 (range: $517.00 — $700.00), implying +23.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LMT trades at the 1350th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4560.0% to approximately $747. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.