MODEL VERDICT
Logitech International S.A. (LOGI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $99.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $95.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $101.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $97.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $91.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $138.44 | +39.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $116.70 | +17.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $128.03 | +28.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $108.45 | +9.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $120.46 | +21.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $121.76 | +22.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $60.41 | -39.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $69.81 | -29.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $60.41 | -39.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $129.77 | +30.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $109.67 | +10.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $126.60 | +27.3% | 100% | 87 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $86 | $94 | $103 | $111 | $120 |
| Conservative (6%) | $88 | $96 | $105 | $114 | $123 |
| Base Case (9.2%) | $90 | $99 | $108 | $117 | $126 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $93 | $102 | $111 | $121 | $130 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.74 | 24.27 | 14.97 | 42.63 | 10.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.36 | 20.81 | 10.79 | 52.23 | 14.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.42 | 18.92 | 10.12 | 45.05 | 11.91 |
| P/FCF | 28.56 | 29.59 | 10.25 | 50.72 | 15.44 |
| P/FFO | 22.47 | 21.53 | 13.76 | 33.45 | 7.85 |
| P/TBV | 9.72 | 8.94 | 5.68 | 17.12 | 3.67 |
| P/AFFO | 25.37 | 23.37 | 14.86 | 41.73 | 9.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.92 | 6.77 | 4.42 | 11.05 | 2.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.26 | 3.03 | 1.94 | 5.53 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LOGI's fair value at $126.60 vs the current price of $99.49, implying +27.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $126.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $103.37 (P10) to $143.37 (P90), with a median of $123.06.
LOGI's current P/E of 24.1x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -22.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
19 analysts cover LOGI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $109.00 (range: $89.00 — $143.00), implying +9.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (9), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LOGI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 420.0% to approximately $95. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.