MODEL VERDICT
The Lovesac Company (LOVE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 19 analyst estimates | $4.34 | -66.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 20 industry peers | $29.25 | +124.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 16 industry peers | $10.89 | -16.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $13.73 | +5.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 19 industry peers | $6.79 | -47.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 20 industry peers | $13.23 | +1.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 22 industry peers | $28.34 | +117.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 22 industry peers | $21.54 | +65.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $11.08 | -14.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $13.68 | +5.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.17 | +47.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.96 | 16.32 | 7.70 | 69.02 | 24.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.45 | 15.89 | 9.11 | 63.01 | 21.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.07 | 11.20 | 7.63 | 43.62 | 14.94 |
| P/FCF | 18.72 | 17.17 | 8.25 | 32.28 | 10.27 |
| P/FFO | 17.00 | 10.68 | 6.39 | 47.61 | 17.20 |
| P/TBV | 3.72 | 2.18 | 1.15 | 9.56 | 3.21 |
| P/AFFO | 43.68 | 47.27 | 8.68 | 78.36 | 25.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.67 | 2.15 | 1.14 | 9.41 | 3.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 3.17 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LOVE's fair value at $19.17 vs the current price of $13.01, implying +47.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.54 (P10) to $25.73 (P90), with a median of $18.93.
LOVE's current P/E of 18.9x compares to the industry median of 15.8x (16 peers in the group). This represents a +19.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 5 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
11 analysts cover LOVE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.67 (range: $18.00 — $26.00), implying +74.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LOVE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4460.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.