MODEL VERDICT
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $256.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $267.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $267.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $265.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $263.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $257.43 | +0.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $252.62 | -1.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $265.32 | +3.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $254.39 | -0.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $237.21 | -7.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $275.31 | +7.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $193.53 | -24.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $251.46 | -2.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $253.63 | -1.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $265.31 | +3.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $254.38 | -0.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $176.49 | -31.3% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 52× | 57× | 62× (Current) | 67× | 72× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $235 | $258 | $280 | $303 | $326 |
| Conservative (15%) | $247 | $271 | $295 | $319 | $342 |
| Base Case (22.4%) | $264 | $290 | $315 | $340 | $366 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $281 | $308 | $335 | $362 | $389 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.99 | 24.91 | 12.85 | 41.25 | 8.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.33 | 20.78 | 11.27 | 36.79 | 7.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.21 | 20.43 | 10.60 | 34.87 | 7.41 |
| P/FCF | 27.75 | 23.15 | 16.28 | 40.79 | 8.90 |
| P/FFO | 23.79 | 22.77 | 11.97 | 38.44 | 8.20 |
| P/TBV | 18.56 | 16.57 | 12.68 | 27.42 | 5.41 |
| P/AFFO | 26.58 | 25.15 | 13.45 | 44.30 | 9.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.82 | 12.96 | 9.41 | 22.39 | 4.63 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.70 | 6.40 | 3.43 | 11.98 | 2.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LRCX's fair value at $176.49 vs the current price of $256.72, implying -31.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $176.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $202.11 (P10) to $233.61 (P90), with a median of $217.50.
LRCX's current P/E of 61.9x compares to the industry median of 63.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -3.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
50 analysts cover LRCX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $290.65 (range: $200.00 — $385.00), implying +13.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (38), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 30.9% is 4.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (30.0%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$104. (2) Multiple compression: LRCX trades at the 5740th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LRCX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5930.0% to approximately $104. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.