Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$233.89
→
Intrinsic$147.04
-37%
$98.79$147.04$242.92
Current price reflects execution expectations above 22% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $99 → Bull $243. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 18% | 20% | 22% | 24% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $185 | $200 | $217 | $234 |
| 10% | $126 | $136 | $147 | $158 |
| 12% | $95 | $103 | $110 | $119 |
| 14% | $76 | $82 | $88 | $94 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($243) offers 4% upside at 27% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($99) implies 58% downside at 18% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 37% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Using 22% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$6.63B
Year 2$8.11B
Year 3$9.93B
Year 4$12.16B
Year 5$14.88B
Terminal$235.79B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate22.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.41BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.