MODEL VERDICT
Lufax Holding Ltd (LU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $44.92 | +2203.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $593.11 | +30315.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $546.24 | +27912.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $78.99 | +3950.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $44.88 | +2201.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $190.32 | +9660.0% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $13 | $13 | $19 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $13 | $13 | $19 | $26 |
| Base Case (-42.9%) | $7 | $7 | $7 | $11 | $14 |
| Bull Case (-58%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $8 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.26 | 1.28 | 0.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.32 | 1.12 | 0.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 1.06 | 0.35 |
| P/FCF | 1.11 | 1.05 | 0.06 | 2.27 | 1.00 |
| P/FFO | 0.61 | 0.51 | 0.23 | 1.19 | 0.41 |
| P/TBV | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| P/AFFO | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 1.21 | 0.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates LU's fair value at $190.32 vs the current price of $1.95, implying +9660.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $190.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $130.39 (P10) to $264.75 (P90), with a median of $196.91.
LU's current P/E of 4.3x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -70.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover LU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.48 (range: $2.40 — $5.20), implying +78.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LU trades at the 1280th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (21.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 106770.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.