Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK)
Valuation Overview•Is Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 40/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
LUCK struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 11.8%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $342.2M | +4.0% | +9.6% | +18.2% | — | |
| EBITDA | $99.3M | — | +9.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $16.9M | +88.0% | +30.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.10 | +78.7% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $42.9M | +191.0% | +41.1% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 29.7% | 32.3% | 27.0% | 25.0% |
| Operating Margin | 11.8% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| Net Margin | -6.8% | -0.1% | -7.1% | -8.8% |
| FCF Margin | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | -1.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.17 | $0.10 | -41.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.01 | $-0.11 | -1333.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.15 | $-0.12 | +20.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.07 | $-0.49 | -600.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.23 | $0.07 | -69.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.06 | $0.06 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.17 | $0.13 | +176.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.00 | $-0.41 | -27831.0% |
Total return is -16.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -37.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -8.5% | -15.8% | — |
| 1Y | -16.8% | -37.7% | +2.5% |
| 3YCAGR | -11.0% | -30.1% | +4.8% |
| 5YCAGR | -3.6% | -14.9% | +5.7% |
| 10YCAGR | -1.6% | -15.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) valuation, health, and returns.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +128.1% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $18.00)
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $18.00 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $1.69 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $9.60 (implying +21.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 40/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.6 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.4%.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation pays a 3.0% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 6.7% buyback yield.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +4.0% 1Y revenue growth and +78.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 17% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +21.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation include: -43.6% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.18x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.