MODEL VERDICT
Luda Technology Group Limited (LUD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $5.28 | -16.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 15 industry peers | $0.70 | -88.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $5.89 | -6.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $5.24 | -17.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.22 | -17.3% | 100% | 48 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates LUD's fair value at $5.22 vs the current price of $6.31, implying -17.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.24 (P10) to $9.24 (P90), with a median of $5.61.
LUD's current P/E of -394.4x compares to the industry median of 22.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -1837.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for LUD.
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LUD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.