MODEL VERDICT
The Macerich Company (MAC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $20.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $20.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $19.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $18.32 | Below threshold | +4.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $63.32 | +209.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $42.97 | +109.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $31.83 | +55.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.05 | +125.0% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 147.99 | 40.99 | 36.70 | 473.30 | 216.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.46 | 16.60 | 4.45 | 21.13 | 5.22 |
| P/FCF | 11.86 | 11.60 | 7.17 | 17.55 | 3.36 |
| P/FFO | 38.31 | 16.28 | 8.76 | 148.95 | 50.50 |
| P/TBV | 1.22 | 1.25 | 0.69 | 1.89 | 0.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.20 | 0.64 | 1.75 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.82 | 4.04 | 1.99 | 5.42 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAC's fair value at $46.05 vs the current price of $20.47, implying +125.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.41 (P10) to $62.24 (P90), with a median of $37.00.
MAC's current P/E of -26.2x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -210.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover MAC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $20.83 (range: $18.00 — $25.00), implying +1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (19), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MAC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.