MODEL VERDICT
The Macerich Company (MAC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $21.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $21.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $22.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $21.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $21.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $8.24 | -61.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $82.21 | +282.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $44.38 | +106.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $27.70 | +28.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.35 | +64.3% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 147.99 | 40.99 | 36.70 | 473.30 | 216.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.46 | 16.60 | 4.45 | 21.13 | 5.22 |
| P/FCF | 11.86 | 11.60 | 7.17 | 17.55 | 3.36 |
| P/FFO | 38.31 | 16.28 | 8.76 | 148.95 | 50.50 |
| P/TBV | 1.22 | 1.25 | 0.69 | 1.89 | 0.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.20 | 0.64 | 1.75 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.82 | 4.04 | 1.99 | 5.42 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAC's fair value at $35.35 vs the current price of $21.51, implying +64.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.15 (P10) to $46.78 (P90), with a median of $35.20.
MAC's current P/E of -27.6x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -200.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover MAC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.40 (range: $20.00 — $25.00), implying -0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (18), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MAC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.