Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$135.43
→
Intrinsic$193.38
+43%
$132.86$193.38$308.25
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MANH could have 43% upside at 21% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $135, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (21%).
Range: Bear $133 → Bull $308. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 17% | 19% | 21% | 23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $236 | $255 | $275 | $297 |
| 10% | $166 | $179 | $193 | $208 |
| 12% | $128 | $138 | $148 | $159 |
| 14% | $104 | $111 | $120 | $128 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($308) offers 128% upside at 26% growth, 9% discount
- 30% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (21%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($133) implies 2% downside at 17% growth, 12% discount
- Using 21% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$454.40M
Year 2$552.07M
Year 3$670.73M
Year 4$814.89M
Year 5$990.03M
Terminal$14.57B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate21.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$374.01MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.