MODEL VERDICT
Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $135.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $144.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $140.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $149.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $175.64 | Below threshold | -15.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $105.94 | -21.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $100.37 | -25.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $93.48 | -31.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $119.63 | -11.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $119.22 | -12.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $114.39 | -15.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $122.59 | -9.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $64.40 | -52.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $58.57 | -56.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $98.89 | -27.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $119.77 | -11.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $149.27 | +10.2% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $125 | $137 | $149 | $160 | $172 |
| Conservative (14%) | $131 | $144 | $156 | $168 | $181 |
| Base Case (21.5%) | $140 | $153 | $166 | $179 | $192 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $149 | $163 | $176 | $190 | $204 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 69.92 | 76.35 | 48.14 | 90.40 | 14.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.18 | 57.77 | 36.25 | 72.66 | 12.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.79 | 53.57 | 35.86 | 68.62 | 11.98 |
| P/FCF | 47.27 | 48.98 | 28.29 | 58.69 | 10.79 |
| P/FFO | 66.07 | 70.35 | 46.76 | 84.48 | 13.35 |
| P/TBV | 54.74 | 53.09 | 41.90 | 70.93 | 11.46 |
| P/AFFO | 69.93 | 72.40 | 50.19 | 87.45 | 12.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 39.93 | 36.49 | 30.91 | 56.18 | 9.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.21 | 11.54 | 8.40 | 16.12 | 3.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MANH's fair value at $149.27 vs the current price of $135.43, implying +10.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $149.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $130.18 (P10) to $168.35 (P90), with a median of $149.23.
MANH's current P/E of 37.6x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +44.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 69.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover MANH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $231.71 (range: $165.00 — $250.00), implying +71.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 20.3% is 2.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (17.5%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$217. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MANH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6000.0% to approximately $217. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.