MODEL VERDICT
Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $140.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $142.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $132.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $128.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $120.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $123.02 | -12.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $86.59 | -38.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $105.85 | -24.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $137.85 | -1.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $101.68 | -27.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $153.22 | +9.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $124.90 | -10.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $90.05 | -35.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $85.66 | -38.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $105.29 | -24.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $137.50 | -1.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.96 | +10.6% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $129 | $141 | $152 | $164 | $176 |
| Conservative (14%) | $135 | $148 | $160 | $172 | $185 |
| Base Case (21.5%) | $144 | $157 | $171 | $184 | $197 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $153 | $167 | $181 | $195 | $209 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 69.92 | 76.35 | 48.14 | 90.40 | 14.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.18 | 57.77 | 36.25 | 72.66 | 12.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.79 | 53.57 | 35.86 | 68.62 | 11.98 |
| P/FCF | 47.27 | 48.98 | 28.29 | 58.69 | 10.79 |
| P/FFO | 66.07 | 70.35 | 46.76 | 84.48 | 13.35 |
| P/TBV | 54.74 | 53.09 | 41.90 | 70.93 | 11.46 |
| P/AFFO | 69.93 | 72.40 | 50.19 | 87.45 | 12.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 39.93 | 36.49 | 30.91 | 56.18 | 9.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.21 | 11.54 | 8.40 | 16.12 | 3.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MANH's fair value at $154.96 vs the current price of $140.13, implying +10.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $145.01 (P10) to $172.37 (P90), with a median of $158.47.
MANH's current P/E of 38.9x compares to the industry median of 29.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +32.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 69.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover MANH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $197.25 (range: $145.00 — $240.00), implying +40.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MANH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5980.0% to approximately $224. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.