MODEL VERDICT
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $354.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $367.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $377.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $363.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $354.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $286.73 | -19.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $173.53 | -51.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $278.54 | -21.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $294.78 | -17.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $263.53 | -25.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $483.32 | +36.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $202.43 | -43.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $210.52 | -40.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $278.54 | -21.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $294.78 | -17.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $315.99 | -11.0% | 100% | 84 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $306 | $336 | $365 | $395 | $424 |
| Conservative (7%) | $313 | $344 | $374 | $404 | $435 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $324 | $355 | $386 | $418 | $449 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $334 | $366 | $399 | $431 | $463 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.05 | 33.09 | 20.56 | 49.47 | 10.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.21 | 24.24 | 16.80 | 40.16 | 8.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.35 | 22.60 | 15.30 | 94.84 | 27.66 |
| P/FCF | 35.34 | 28.58 | 23.88 | 54.74 | 12.63 |
| P/FFO | 52.37 | 28.83 | 17.59 | 203.69 | 67.11 |
| P/AFFO | 123.33 | 41.26 | 20.00 | 565.52 | 216.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 74.03 | 78.84 | 38.48 | 99.95 | 26.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.14 | 3.17 | 2.34 | 4.07 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAR's fair value at $315.99 vs the current price of $354.97, implying -11.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $315.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $260.99 (P10) to $387.46 (P90), with a median of $318.26.
MAR's current P/E of 37.4x compares to the industry median of 29.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +27.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.1x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
52 analysts cover MAR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $372.50 (range: $343.00 — $400.00), implying +4.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (28), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MAR trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (33.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MAR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 750.0% to approximately $382. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.