MODEL VERDICT
Masimo Corporation (MASI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $178.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $178.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $178.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $178.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $178.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $89.60 | -49.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $82.29 | -53.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $126.05 | -29.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $83.62 | -53.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $91.70 | -48.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $112.56 | -36.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $95.84 | -46.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $185.90 | +4.2% | 100% | 80 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 63.77 | 64.83 | 45.95 | 77.62 | 12.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 48.89 | 51.65 | 36.15 | 58.88 | 9.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.57 | 32.54 | 23.92 | 52.50 | 12.68 |
| P/FCF | 223.30 | 67.08 | 35.64 | 990.79 | 376.99 |
| P/FFO | 45.40 | 41.08 | 29.21 | 63.68 | 14.75 |
| P/TBV | 19.45 | 12.66 | 8.07 | 47.79 | 13.47 |
| P/AFFO | 58.36 | 59.64 | 36.01 | 79.03 | 17.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.37 | 8.38 | 4.65 | 11.07 | 2.42 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.54 | 4.62 | 3.10 | 13.63 | 4.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates MASI's fair value at $185.90 vs the current price of $178.48, implying +4.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $185.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $92.34 (P10) to $397.98 (P90), with a median of $189.13.
MASI's current P/E of -63.7x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -324.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 63.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover MASI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $187.50 (range: $180.00 — $200.00), implying +5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MASI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.