MODEL VERDICT
MasterBrand, Inc. (MBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $9.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $9.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $9.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $8.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $8.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $6.33 | -30.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $10.88 | +19.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $4.12 | -54.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $16.87 | +85.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $24.01 | +164.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $12.99 | +43.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $34.42 | +278.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $36.30 | +299.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $4.09 | -55.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $13.90 | +53.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.20 | +23.2% | 100% | 57 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.17 | 12.91 | 6.29 | 52.57 | 21.25 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.80 | 10.40 | 8.39 | 18.01 | 4.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.94 | 7.72 | 5.70 | 10.62 | 2.15 |
| P/FCF | 8.04 | 7.30 | 5.42 | 12.14 | 3.21 |
| P/FFO | 8.39 | 8.62 | 4.43 | 11.87 | 3.11 |
| P/AFFO | 16.44 | 12.92 | 5.94 | 33.96 | 12.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.27 | 0.97 | 1.62 | 0.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.71 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MBC's fair value at $11.20 vs the current price of $9.09, implying +23.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.19 (P10) to $13.04 (P90), with a median of $11.06.
MBC's current P/E of 43.3x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +120.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover MBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $16.00 — $16.00), implying +76.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MBC trades at the 9090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 29960.0% to approximately $36. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.