MODEL VERDICT
McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $286.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $299.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $311.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $306.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $305.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $309.36 | +7.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $245.43 | -14.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $294.80 | +2.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $244.75 | -14.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $277.96 | -3.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $229.56 | -19.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $141.19 | -50.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $48.53 | -83.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $99.68 | -65.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $294.80 | +2.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $246.85 | -13.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $270.24 | -5.7% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $247 | $270 | $293 | $317 | $340 |
| Conservative (5%) | $251 | $275 | $299 | $323 | $347 |
| Base Case (7.6%) | $257 | $282 | $306 | $331 | $355 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $264 | $289 | $314 | $339 | $364 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.44 | 25.65 | 23.55 | 34.01 | 3.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.46 | 22.36 | 19.29 | 28.40 | 3.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.71 | 19.50 | 16.47 | 23.03 | 2.12 |
| P/FCF | 31.36 | 31.37 | 26.39 | 35.60 | 3.37 |
| P/FFO | 21.46 | 20.78 | 18.84 | 24.83 | 2.27 |
| P/AFFO | 29.38 | 28.79 | 26.84 | 33.25 | 2.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.96 | 8.38 | 6.56 | 8.68 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCD's fair value at $270.24 vs the current price of $286.64, implying -5.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $270.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $246.25 (P10) to $298.10 (P90), with a median of $271.86.
MCD's current P/E of 25.2x compares to the industry median of 25.9x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -2.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
62 analysts cover MCD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $352.25 (range: $306.00 — $385.00), implying +22.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (36), Hold (25), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 32.0% is 3.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (42.6%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$416. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4500.0% to approximately $416. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.