MODEL VERDICT
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $23.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $23.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $23.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $21.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $21.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $30.06 | +28.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $19.50 | -16.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $9.03 | -61.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $21.72 | -7.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $12.55 | -46.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $29.97 | +27.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $19.81 | -15.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $13.72 | -41.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $9.05 | -61.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $21.51 | -8.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.98 | -23.3% | 100% | 80 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.49 | 11.69 | 5.84 | 43.98 | 17.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.38 | 6.91 | 3.49 | 27.33 | 9.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.82 | 6.20 | 3.36 | 19.50 | 6.40 |
| P/FCF | 12.14 | 9.88 | 3.67 | 29.16 | 9.02 |
| P/FFO | 11.12 | 9.23 | 5.20 | 18.82 | 5.57 |
| P/TBV | 8.78 | 3.14 | 2.54 | 29.34 | 11.59 |
| P/AFFO | 36.11 | 17.12 | 7.62 | 123.97 | 44.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.93 | 3.36 | 1.70 | 9.52 | 2.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.63 | 1.28 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCFT's fair value at $17.98 vs the current price of $23.44, implying -23.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.82 (P10) to $23.75 (P90), with a median of $19.76.
MCFT's current P/E of 54.5x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +159.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
10 analysts cover MCFT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.67 (range: $21.00 — $28.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MCFT trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCFT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2790.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.