MODEL VERDICT
Moody's Corporation (MCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $455.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $456.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $455.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $446.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $427.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $355.86 | -21.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $76.07 | -83.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $268.29 | -41.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $330.43 | -27.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $360.27 | -21.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $367.64 | -19.3% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $381 | $423 | $465 | $507 | $550 |
| Conservative (5%) | $388 | $431 | $474 | $517 | $560 |
| Base Case (7.8%) | $398 | $442 | $486 | $531 | $575 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $408 | $453 | $498 | $544 | $589 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.81 | 37.37 | 30.91 | 44.74 | 5.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.55 | 28.04 | 24.09 | 36.02 | 4.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.12 | 24.72 | 21.89 | 29.74 | 2.72 |
| P/FCF | 35.14 | 35.69 | 26.89 | 43.21 | 5.88 |
| P/FFO | 31.11 | 30.18 | 27.50 | 36.29 | 3.30 |
| P/AFFO | 34.71 | 35.17 | 28.99 | 42.05 | 5.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 27.94 | 23.20 | 19.14 | 54.35 | 12.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.02 | 11.80 | 9.41 | 12.20 | 1.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCO's fair value at $367.64 vs the current price of $455.77, implying -19.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $367.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $313.95 (P10) to $424.90 (P90), with a median of $368.60.
MCO's current P/E of 33.3x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +28.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.8x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
32 analysts cover MCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $544.75 (range: $489.00 — $610.00), implying +19.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 460.0% to approximately $477. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.