MODEL VERDICT
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $513.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $512.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $532.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $518.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $519.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $148.18 | -71.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $148.31 | -71.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $136.16 | -73.5% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 12.03 | 8.76 | 3.37 | 25.20 | 8.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.99 | 8.70 | 3.37 | 25.20 | 8.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates MDGL's fair value at $136.16 vs the current price of $513.72, implying -73.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $136.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.51 (P10) to $220.25 (P90), with a median of $148.03.
MDGL's current P/E of -40.0x compares to the industry median of 34.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -214.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover MDGL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $705.67 (range: $527.00 — $964.00), implying +37.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MDGL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.