MODEL VERDICT
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $61.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $57.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $57.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $56.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $59.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $45.39 | -26.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $31.73 | -48.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $32.41 | -47.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $33.00 | -46.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $31.79 | -48.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $35.70 | -41.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $42.93 | -30.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $45.40 | -26.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $32.41 | -47.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $32.93 | -46.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.97 | -33.2% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $50 | $56 | $62 | $67 | $73 |
| Conservative (5%) | $52 | $58 | $64 | $69 | $75 |
| Base Case (-5.2%) | $47 | $52 | $57 | $63 | $68 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $46 | $51 | $56 | $62 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.75 | 21.81 | 17.46 | 34.01 | 5.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.70 | 24.89 | 14.40 | 31.16 | 5.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.91 | 19.10 | 12.75 | 24.55 | 3.55 |
| P/FCF | 26.55 | 27.17 | 21.60 | 30.75 | 3.32 |
| P/FFO | 17.66 | 17.31 | 13.61 | 24.14 | 3.27 |
| P/AFFO | 22.81 | 21.06 | 17.78 | 31.63 | 4.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.13 | 3.05 | 2.70 | 3.50 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.75 | 2.93 | 1.81 | 3.26 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MDLZ's fair value at $40.97 vs the current price of $61.37, implying -33.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.81 (P10) to $48.69 (P90), with a median of $43.11.
MDLZ's current P/E of 32.5x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +89.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover MDLZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.00 (range: $61.00 — $73.00), implying +9.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MDLZ trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MDLZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3310.0% to approximately $82. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.