MODEL VERDICT
Medtronic plc (MDT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $80.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $83.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $86.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $87.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $87.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $92.30 | +15.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $125.08 | +56.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $98.80 | +23.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $95.37 | +19.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $90.03 | +12.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $83.11 | +3.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $100.17 | +25.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $115.35 | +44.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $98.39 | +22.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $98.47 | +23.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $96.66 | +20.8% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $66 | $74 | $81 | $88 | $96 |
| Conservative (5%) | $68 | $76 | $83 | $91 | $99 |
| Base Case (0.4%) | $65 | $72 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $65 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.12 | 29.21 | 20.84 | 38.89 | 5.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.38 | 23.63 | 20.66 | 34.76 | 5.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.72 | 17.04 | 14.83 | 24.00 | 3.48 |
| P/FCF | 23.87 | 23.97 | 17.57 | 28.67 | 3.79 |
| P/FFO | 18.34 | 17.01 | 13.56 | 22.21 | 3.20 |
| P/AFFO | 23.06 | 22.44 | 16.47 | 28.28 | 3.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.53 | 2.57 | 1.99 | 3.11 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.14 | 3.69 | 3.28 | 5.47 | 0.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MDT's fair value at $96.66 vs the current price of $80.03, implying +20.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $96.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $93.07 (P10) to $110.16 (P90), with a median of $101.46.
MDT's current P/E of 22.2x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -19.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
49 analysts cover MDT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $109.50 (range: $95.00 — $120.00), implying +36.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (26), Hold (22), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MDT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4450.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.