Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$1,757.58
→
Intrinsic$7,983.75
+354%
$5,289.08$7,983.75$13,337.31
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MELI could have 354% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $1758, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $5289 → Bull $13337. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $10172 | $11006 | $11896 | $12842 |
| 10% | $6844 | $7396 | $7984 | $8609 |
| 12% | $5090 | $5494 | $5924 | $6381 |
| 14% | $4011 | $4324 | $4658 | $5011 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($13337) offers 659% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($5289) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$13.47B
Year 2$16.83B
Year 3$21.04B
Year 4$26.30B
Year 5$32.88B
Terminal$520.97B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$10.77BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.