Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA)
Valuation Overview•Is Mesa Air Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 15/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
MESA struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-10.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-44.6%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $90.7M | -19.9% | -10.4% | -6.9% | -11.7% | |
| EBITDA | $411K | — | -15.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$14.1M | -67.4% | +5.9% | — | -18.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.34 | -82.4% | — | — | -14.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$4.5M | -482.3% | -14.9% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 10.8% | 38.2% | 24.2% | 21.5% |
| Operating Margin | -44.6% | -25.8% | -19.9% | -3.2% |
| Net Margin | -43.6% | -27.7% | -22.9% | -9.0% |
| FCF Margin | -14.0% | -7.7% | -1.6% | -4.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | — | $0.12 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $11.74 | — | ||
| Q4'25 | — | $-0.05 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $-0.01 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $-0.07 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $-623.62 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $-136.29 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.22 | $-0.23 | -204.8% |
Total return is +2112.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +2087.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.0% | -9.3% | — |
| 1Y | +2112.2% | +2087.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +106.9% | +87.4% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +18.0% | +5.1% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +6.0% | -7.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Mesa Air Group, Inc. appears Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $8.88. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 15/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -2.4 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -62.9%.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Mesa Air Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -19.9% 1Y revenue growth and -82.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -10.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a -6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Mesa Air Group, Inc. include: -17.8% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.99x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.