MODEL VERDICT
MetLife, Inc. (MET)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $80.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $77.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $78.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $77.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $73.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $77.30 | -3.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $56.70 | -29.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $97.36 | +21.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $103.05 | +28.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $77.29 | -3.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $43.82 | -45.4% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $101.29 | +26.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $74.04 | -7.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.04 | -6.5% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $61 | $73 | $85 | $97 | $109 |
| Conservative (5%) | $62 | $75 | $87 | $100 | $112 |
| Base Case (-0.4%) | $59 | $71 | $83 | $95 | $106 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $59 | $71 | $83 | $95 | $106 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.57 | 8.41 | 8.17 | 36.54 | 10.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.72 | 6.24 | 5.26 | 15.16 | 3.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.22 | 6.52 | 5.46 | 16.88 | 4.03 |
| P/FCF | 4.05 | 3.85 | 3.46 | 5.15 | 0.59 |
| P/FFO | 10.29 | 7.37 | 7.12 | 21.96 | 5.40 |
| P/TBV | 1.67 | 0.96 | 0.66 | 3.10 | 1.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.23 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 2.10 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.61 | 0.86 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates MET's fair value at $75.04 vs the current price of $80.23, implying -6.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.52 (P10) to $86.89 (P90), with a median of $74.71.
MET's current P/E of 13.5x compares to the industry median of 13.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +3.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
33 analysts cover MET with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $96.50 (range: $90.00 — $102.00), implying +20.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MET's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3030.0% to approximately $105. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.