MODEL VERDICT
MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $10.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $10.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $10.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $10.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $9.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $11.14 | +7.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $14.54 | +39.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $9.70 | -6.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $10.27 | -1.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $8.95 | -13.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.45 | +10.2% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $8 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Base Case (-23.7%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-32%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.57 | 9.65 | 6.94 | 24.50 | 6.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.42 | 46.29 | 4.15 | 88.97 | 44.12 |
| P/FCF | 18.17 | 16.73 | 2.78 | 52.44 | 16.52 |
| P/FFO | 8.32 | 7.46 | 4.52 | 13.84 | 4.23 |
| P/TBV | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 1.65 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 6.55 | 5.71 | 4.53 | 9.43 | 2.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.23 | 1.06 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.32 | 6.41 | 3.83 | 8.26 | 1.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates MFA's fair value at $11.45 vs the current price of $10.39, implying +10.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.96 (P10) to $25.21 (P90), with a median of $9.73.
MFA's current P/E of 12.7x compares to the industry median of 11.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +7.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.6x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
22 analysts cover MFA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.25 (range: $10.25 — $10.25), implying -1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MFA trades at the 5200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MFA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (63.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8180.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.