Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG)
Valuation Overview•Is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 47/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
MFG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with highly explosive earnings growth (34.7% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 16.2% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2T | +10.4% | — | — | +12.4% | |
| EBITDA | $424.5B | — | +27.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $329.9B | +49.5% | +33.6% | — | +7.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $27.09 | +52.8% | +34.7% | +23.6% | +7.3% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | +111.7% | -61.7% | -50.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 46.3% | 42.4% | 52.1% | 61.9% |
| Operating Margin | 16.2% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 17.6% |
| Net Margin | 12.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% |
| FCF Margin | — | -7.5% | 64.7% | 108.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.07 | $0.21 | +200.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.14 | $0.16 | +14.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.15 | $0.21 | +44.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.15 | $0.15 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.03 | $0.03 | +9.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.10 | $0.15 | +50.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.11 | $0.15 | +36.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.11 | $0.15 | +36.4% |
Total return is +91.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +66.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +40.2% | +30.9% | — |
| 1Y | +91.0% | +66.0% | +3.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +54.5% | +34.2% | +17.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +30.6% | +17.2% | +26.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +14.4% | +0.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) valuation, health, and returns.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -55.0% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $4.64)
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $4.64 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $1186.59 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $10.00 (implying -2.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 47/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 1.7%.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. pays a 1.9% dividend yield, covered by a 30% payout ratio with 3 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.1% buyback yield.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +10.4% 1Y revenue growth and +52.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -2.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. include: -24.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.23x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.