Upside case
Bull case
$4401+51495.0%
MFG would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 44x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
5
analysts
1 bullish · 1 bearish · 5 covering MFG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$10
+17.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$402 – $4401
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $105.0B
MFG price targets
Three scenarios for where MFG stock could go
Current
~$9
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $9
Bear
$402
Base
$1819
Bull
$4401
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1819+21220.8%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$402+4611.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push MFG down roughly 4611% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
MFG · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalMarch year-end
Mizuho Financial Group is one of Japan's largest banking and financial services conglomerates, operating through retail banking, corporate banking, and global markets divisions. It generates revenue primarily from net interest income on loans and deposits (roughly 60% of total revenue) and fee-based income from securities trading, asset management, and advisory services. Its key advantage is its entrenched position as one of Japan's "megabanks" with deep corporate relationships, extensive domestic branch networks, and integrated financial services across banking, securities, and trust businesses.
Market Cap
$105.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.01T
MFG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+24.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.03/$0.03
Revenue
$13.3B/$5.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.15/$0.15
Revenue
$13.9B/$5.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.21/$0.15
Revenue
$14.3B/$5.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.16/$0.14
Revenue
$6.1B/$5.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.03/$0.03 | +9.4% | $13.3B/$5.4B | +145.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.15/$0.15 | +0.0% | $13.9B/$5.5B | +153.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.21/$0.15 | +44.7% | $14.3B/$5.1B | +179.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.16/$0.14 | +14.3% | $6.1B/$5.2B | +16.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.49T
-1.2% YoY
FY2
$9.32T
+9.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$87.79
+8.3% YoY
FY2
$94.96
+8.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
May 15, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.07
Expected Revenue
$5.4B
MFG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MFG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.41T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Financial Service
50.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
45.6%
+3.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Financial Service is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 45.6%, up 3.9% YoY.
MFG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $821 — implies +9547.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9547.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MFG
19.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
24% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MFG
19.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+43% premium
vs MFG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.0x
vs
5Y Average
0.1x
+26535% premium
Forward PE
0.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Financial Services
10.4x
-99%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-24%
Financial Services
13.3x
+43%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+26535%
PEG Ratio
1.30x
S&P 500
1.72x
-24%
Financial Services
1.01x
+28%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
3.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-77%
Financial Services
11.4x
-70%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
0.0x
—
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Financial Services
2.2x
-14%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+20574%
Dividend Yield
1.81%
S&P 500
1.87%
-3%
Financial Services
2.70%
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MFG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.1x | 19.1x-100% | 10.4x-99% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.0x | 25.1x-24% | 13.3x+43% | 0.1x+26535% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.30x | 1.72x-24% | 1.01x+28% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4x | 15.2x-77% | 11.4x-70% | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 0.0x |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 2.2x-14% | 0.0x+20574% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.81% | 1.87% | 2.70% | — |
MFG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMFG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MFG generates 9.1% ROE and 0.3% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$81.08
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$72.48T
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$11.60T
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$102.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$24.08
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
12.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMFG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Insider Trading Investigation
Ongoing investigation into insider trading related to MFG's bond underwriting business could lead to regulatory penalties, reputational damage, and operational disruptions.
High Risk
High Debt Levels
MFG's debt‑to‑equity ratio is elevated, indicating heavy reliance on debt financing. Rising interest rates or reduced debt‑servicing capacity could strain cash flows and increase borrowing costs.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
Increasing reliance on technology exposes MFG to cyberattacks that could compromise operational systems and customer data. A breach could result in financial losses, regulatory fines, and reputational harm.
Medium
Credit Downgrade Risk
A downgrade of MFG's credit rating would raise borrowing costs and could erode investor confidence. This risk is heightened by the bank's high leverage and market volatility.
Medium
Market Volatility
General market volatility can cause sharp price swings in MFG's stock and affect the bank's trading and investment activities. Volatility also impacts bond portfolio valuations and liquidity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MFG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Earnings Outlook
MFG recently reported earnings per share that surpassed analyst expectations, indicating effective management and operational efficiency. Analysts anticipate the company will continue to deliver above‑expectations earnings for FY2025.
Undervalued Growth Potential
The stock trades at a price‑to‑earnings growth (P/E/G) ratio of 0.63, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its growth prospects. Analysts view MFG as transitioning from a value play to a normalized bank, opening room for further upside.
Positive Technical Momentum
Multiple technical indicators – the 5‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, and the RSI – all signal a “Buy” or “Strong Buy.” The momentum indicator crossed above the 0 level on March 31 2026, and historically the stock has climbed after such moves.
Low Volatility Appeal
MFG has a beta of 0.36, indicating it is less volatile than the broader market. This lower risk profile can attract risk‑averse investors seeking stable returns.
Bank of Japan Policy Boost
The end of negative interest rates in Japan has lifted profit margins on lending for Japanese banks, including Mizuho. This macro‑environmental shift supports higher earnings and strengthens the bank’s competitive position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MFG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$8.53
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$4.88
+74.8% from the low
52-Week High
$10.28
-17.0% from the high
1 Month
+4.02%
3 Month
-5.22%
YTD
+15.1%
1 Year
+74.1%
3Y CAGR
+42.3%
5Y CAGR
+24.2%
10Y CAGR
+11.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MFG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.1x
vs 9.1x median
-99% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.2%
vs +1.0% median
-224% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MFG MFG Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. | $105.0B | 0.1x | -1.2% | — | Hold | +17.2% |
MUF MUFG Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | $200.9B | 0.1x | +4.0% | — | Buy | — |
SMF SMFG Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. | $134.9B | 0.1x | +1.0% | — | Hold | — |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $58.6B | 9.1x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -51.5% |
BBV BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | $120.1B | 10.6x | +5.1% | — | Buy | — |
ING ING ING Groep N.V. | $81.7B | 11.8x | -24.5% | — | Buy | -20.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MFG Dividend and Capital Return
MFG returns 2.4% total yield, led by a 1.81% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.6%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
1.81%
Payout Ratio
34.4%
How MFG Splits Its Return
Div 1.81%
Buyback 0.6%
Dividend 1.81%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$24.08
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.9%
5Y Div CAGR
6.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$102.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
12.1B
Approx. Share Reduction
95.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
12.6B
At 95.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.20 | +25.2% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $0.16 | +22.3% | 6.7% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.13 | +4.3% | 6.5% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.12 | -11.3% | 5.9% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $0.14 | -1.3% | 19.7% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMFG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $10, implying +17.2% from the current price of $9. The bear case scenario is $402 and the bull case is $4401.
02What is the MFG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MFG is $10 based on 5 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $10 (+17.2% from today), and the low-end target is $10 (+17.2%). The base case model target is $1819.
03Is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) stock overvalued in 2026?
MFG trades at 0.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MFG in 2026 are: (1) Insider Trading Investigation — Ongoing investigation into insider trading related to MFG's bond underwriting business could lead to regulatory penalties, reputational damage, and operational disruptions. (2) High Debt Levels — MFG's debt‑to‑equity ratio is elevated, indicating heavy reliance on debt financing. (3) Cybersecurity Threats — Increasing reliance on technology exposes MFG to cyberattacks that could compromise operational systems and customer data. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MFG will report consensus revenue of $8.49T (-1.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $87.79 (+8.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.32T in revenue.
06When does Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) report its next earnings?
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-15. Consensus expects EPS of $0.07 and revenue of $5.4B. Over recent quarters, MFG has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. generate?
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. MFG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($102.9B TTM).