Mistras Group, Inc. (MG)
Valuation Overview•Is Mistras Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 37/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
MG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with highly explosive earnings growth (34.1% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.1%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $169.0M | -0.8% | +1.7% | +4.1% | +0.2% | |
| EBITDA | $13.0M | — | +17.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $2.4M | -11.2% | +37.3% | — | +0.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.07 | -11.7% | +34.1% | — | -0.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.2M | -69.4% | -13.8% | -30.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 26.7% | 28.3% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| Operating Margin | 8.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Net Margin | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.9% |
| FCF Margin | 0.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.01 | $0.08 | +1500.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.20 | $0.25 | +25.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.29 | $0.46 | +58.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.17 | $0.19 | +11.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.16 | $-0.01 | -106.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.13 | $0.24 | +84.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.27 | $0.20 | -25.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.14 | $0.21 | +50.0% |
Total return is +145.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +120.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +42.9% | +33.6% | — |
| 1Y | +145.2% | +120.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +33.6% | +13.9% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +12.9% | -0.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -3.0% | -16.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Mistras Group, Inc. (MG) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Mistras Group, Inc. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Mistras Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $23.99 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $22.00 (implying +19.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Mistras Group, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 37/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.3 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.6%.
Mistras Group, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Mistras Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -0.8% 1Y revenue growth and -11.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +1.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 18 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +19.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Mistras Group, Inc. include: -14.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.24x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.