MODEL VERDICT
MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $80.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $80.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $77.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $77.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $80.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $71.83 | -10.9% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $132.34 | +64.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $9.46 | -88.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $66.87 | -17.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $81.89 | +1.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $102.59 | +27.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $101.85 | +26.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $71.83 | -10.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.39 | +7.2% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $69 | $77 | $84 | $92 | $100 |
| Conservative (5%) | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 | $102 |
| Base Case (7.4%) | $72 | $80 | $88 | $96 | $104 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $74 | $82 | $90 | $98 | $106 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.20 | 26.93 | 21.08 | 33.83 | 4.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.64 | 22.48 | 19.24 | 26.86 | 3.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.80 | 16.37 | 12.91 | 18.53 | 2.12 |
| P/FFO | 14.25 | 14.86 | 11.46 | 17.25 | 2.18 |
| P/TBV | 2.63 | 2.56 | 2.30 | 3.19 | 0.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.63 | 2.56 | 2.30 | 3.19 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.37 | 4.63 | 3.56 | 5.03 | 0.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MGEE's fair value at $86.39 vs the current price of $80.60, implying +7.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.68 (P10) to $98.14 (P90), with a median of $89.80.
MGEE's current P/E of 21.7x compares to the industry median of 19.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +12.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
4 analysts cover MGEE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $73.00 (range: $73.00 — $73.00), implying -9.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 18.3% is 1.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.8%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$90. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MGEE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1110.0% to approximately $90. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.