MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)
Valuation Overview•Is MGE Energy, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Moderate quality score of 54/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
MGEE demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 22.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $242.7M | +9.9% | +1.3% | +6.7% | +2.8% | |
| EBITDA | $81.2M | — | +8.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $48.5M | +12.7% | +7.0% | — | +6.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.32 | +11.7% | +6.6% | +7.4% | +6.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$20.4M | -295.8% | -55.4% | -21.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 97.1% | 59.2% | 49.4% | 42.5% |
| Operating Margin | 22.3% | 21.9% | 20.9% | 21.1% |
| Net Margin | 18.6% | 17.7% | 17.2% | 16.5% |
| FCF Margin | -17.0% | -0.8% | -1.6% | -1.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.13 | $1.32 | +16.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.64 | $0.64 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.64 | $0.64 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.19 | $1.22 | +2.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.73 | $0.72 | -1.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.98 | $1.14 | +16.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.84 | $0.61 | -27.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.17 | $1.13 | -3.4% |
Total return is -12.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -37.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -2.0% | -11.3% | — |
| 1Y | -12.5% | -37.5% | +2.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +1.5% | -18.2% | +6.9% |
| 5YCAGR | +2.7% | -10.5% | +11.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +5.2% | -8.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) valuation, health, and returns.
MGE Energy, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $72.50)
MGE Energy, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $72.50 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $73.34 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $70.00 (implying -7.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
MGE Energy, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 54/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.1%.
MGE Energy, Inc. pays a 2.4% dividend yield, covered by a 50% payout ratio with 39 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
MGE Energy, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +9.9% 1Y revenue growth and +11.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +1.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -7.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for MGE Energy, Inc. include: -20.4% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.08x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.