MODEL VERDICT
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $50.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $51.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $54.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $53.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $53.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $37.01 | -26.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $43.91 | -12.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $67.41 | +34.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $33.30 | -33.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $64.03 | +27.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $45.70 | -9.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $9.15 | -81.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $29.38 | -41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $25.86 | -48.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $67.12 | +33.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $33.24 | -33.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.92 | +13.3% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $39 | $45 | $51 | $57 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $40 | $46 | $52 | $58 | $65 |
| Base Case (1.1%) | $39 | $44 | $50 | $56 | $62 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $39 | $45 | $51 | $56 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.10 | 32.39 | 23.25 | 34.50 | 4.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.86 | 27.36 | 20.05 | 30.14 | 4.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.55 | 24.12 | 16.81 | 26.03 | 3.78 |
| P/FCF | 34.48 | 31.53 | 18.96 | 57.50 | 13.37 |
| P/FFO | 23.89 | 25.38 | 17.97 | 28.20 | 4.00 |
| P/AFFO | 32.47 | 33.09 | 22.96 | 39.29 | 5.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.92 | 4.77 | 3.18 | 6.58 | 1.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.57 | 3.53 | 2.68 | 4.59 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MKC's fair value at $56.92 vs the current price of $50.24, implying +13.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.57 (P10) to $65.27 (P90), with a median of $58.32.
MKC's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -25.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
30 analysts cover MKC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $73.20 (range: $67.00 — $85.00), implying +45.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MKC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7950.0% to approximately $90. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.