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McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$67.42
→
Intrinsic$27.54
-59%
$13.79$27.54$53.70
Market implies 24% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $67, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (24%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $14 → Bull $54. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $36 | $40 | $45 | $51 |
| 10% | $21 | $24 | $28 | $31 |
| 12% | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 |
| 14% | $7 | $9 | $11 | $14 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($54) with 10% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($14) implies 80% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 24% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 59% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$698.76M
Year 2$754.66M
Year 3$815.03M
Year 4$880.24M
Year 5$950.66M
Terminal$13.99B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$647.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.