MODEL VERDICT
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $614.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $615.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $622.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $616.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $631.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $422.63 | -31.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $405.91 | -33.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $447.49 | -27.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $486.73 | -20.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $456.73 | -25.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $403.69 | -34.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $182.26 | -70.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $376.36 | -38.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $403.05 | -34.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $446.95 | -27.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $486.86 | -20.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $431.54 | -29.8% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $528 | $587 | $646 | $705 | $763 |
| Conservative (7%) | $541 | $602 | $662 | $722 | $782 |
| Base Case (10.3%) | $560 | $622 | $684 | $747 | $809 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $578 | $642 | $706 | $770 | $834 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.50 | 26.51 | 15.94 | 39.26 | 7.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.89 | 20.79 | 13.36 | 32.91 | 6.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.72 | 16.33 | 11.27 | 23.05 | 3.79 |
| P/FCF | 37.55 | 38.52 | 25.67 | 52.68 | 8.57 |
| P/FFO | 17.86 | 17.83 | 12.39 | 23.89 | 3.83 |
| P/TBV | 7.93 | 7.10 | 5.96 | 13.94 | 2.76 |
| P/AFFO | 28.88 | 29.72 | 18.57 | 38.96 | 7.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.49 | 3.36 | 2.94 | 4.22 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.45 | 4.57 | 3.43 | 5.76 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MLM's fair value at $431.54 vs the current price of $614.49, implying -29.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $431.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $417.90 (P10) to $491.72 (P90), with a median of $454.59.
MLM's current P/E of 32.7x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +37.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
40 analysts cover MLM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $695.30 (range: $608.00 — $785.00), implying +13.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MLM trades at the 7860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MLM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2080.0% to approximately $742. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.