Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM)
Valuation Overview•Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 70/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
MLM demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with robust earnings compounding (10.7% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 22.7% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | +0.1% | +2.0% | +6.7% | +6.3% | |
| EBITDA | $329.0M | — | +8.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.5B | -43.0% | +9.5% | — | +14.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $25.06 | -42.0% | +10.7% | +10.3% | +15.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $41.0M | +61.9% | +24.3% | +7.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 29.6% | 29.5% | 27.3% | 25.9% |
| Operating Margin | 22.7% | 29.4% | 25.2% | 21.7% |
| Net Margin | 38.7% | 21.7% | 18.4% | 16.1% |
| FCF Margin | 15.8% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.78 | $1.93 | +8.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $4.78 | $3.85 | -19.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $6.72 | $5.97 | -11.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $5.31 | $5.43 | +2.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.88 | $1.90 | +1.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $4.62 | $4.79 | +3.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $6.28 | $5.91 | -5.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $5.36 | $4.76 | -11.2% |
Total return is +13.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -11.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -3.7% | -13.0% | — |
| 1Y | +13.7% | -11.3% | +0.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +12.9% | -7.8% | +2.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +13.2% | 0.0% | +4.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +13.2% | -0.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) valuation, health, and returns.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -33.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $404.56)
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $404.56 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $595.11 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $684.55 (implying +12.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 70/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.8 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.6%.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. pays a 0.5% dividend yield, covered by a 17% payout ratio with 10 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.2% buyback yield.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +0.1% 1Y revenue growth and -42.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +2.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 40 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +12.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. include: -24.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.94x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.