MODEL VERDICT
Maui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc. (MLP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $15.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $15.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $15.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $1.69 | -89.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $29.78 | +92.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $8.82 | -42.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $4.32 | -72.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.65 | -11.7% | 100% | 63 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 102.89 | 43.11 | 16.25 | 309.10 | 139.09 |
| P/FCF | 162.37 | 142.29 | 29.18 | 331.68 | 113.83 |
| P/TBV | 8.89 | 9.02 | 5.41 | 12.98 | 2.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.89 | 9.02 | 5.41 | 12.98 | 2.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 23.34 | 21.51 | 8.72 | 37.25 | 10.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates MLP's fair value at $13.65 vs the current price of $15.46, implying -11.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.69 (P10) to $16.32 (P90), with a median of $14.51.
MLP's current P/E of -40.7x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -268.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for MLP.
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MLP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.