MODEL VERDICT
Marcus & Millichap, Inc. (MMI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $27.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $28.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $27.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $26.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $4.50 | -83.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $1.36 | -95.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| Dividend Yield 1 industry peers | $46.53 | +68.0% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $57.95 | +109.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $5.82 | -79.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $46.11 | +66.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $28.48 | +2.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.52 | -33.1% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.34 | 16.80 | 13.30 | 34.47 | 9.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 61.97 | 12.19 | 8.62 | 258.13 | 109.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.51 | 10.74 | 8.16 | 20.38 | 5.62 |
| P/FCF | 162.58 | 68.46 | 8.30 | 705.25 | 268.65 |
| P/FFO | 87.41 | 22.44 | 11.77 | 350.09 | 133.40 |
| P/TBV | 2.67 | 2.84 | 1.89 | 3.20 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 107.35 | 19.35 | 13.06 | 458.68 | 196.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.47 | 2.62 | 1.76 | 2.98 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.81 | 1.83 | 1.06 | 2.61 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates MMI's fair value at $18.52 vs the current price of $27.70, implying -33.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.29 (P10) to $34.97 (P90), with a median of $24.59.
MMI's current P/E of -565.3x compares to the industry median of 34.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -1726.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover MMI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $26.00 — $26.00), implying -6.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MMI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.