MOGU Inc. (MOGU)
Valuation Overview•Is MOGU Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 30/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
MOGU struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($81M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-25.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-71.6%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $39.7M | -11.9% | -25.2% | -29.9% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$26.9M | — | +36.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$19.2M | -5.5% | +53.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-2.19 | -4.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$24.5M | +42.1% | +22.8% | +24.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 40.0% | 44.7% | 49.8% | 57.5% |
| Operating Margin | -71.6% | -67.3% | -97.9% | -70.6% |
| Net Margin | -44.3% | -52.7% | -83.1% | -96.6% |
| FCF Margin | -55.2% | -55.8% | -53.1% | -49.5% |
Total return is -6.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -26.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -6.3% | -13.6% | — |
| 1Y | -6.0% | -26.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -5.3% | -23.9% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -36.2% | -47.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -35.7% | -49.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about MOGU Inc. (MOGU) valuation, health, and returns.
MOGU Inc. valuation is being assessed using available models.
Valuation anchors are currently not available.
MOGU Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 30/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -14.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -21.2%.
MOGU Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 0.9% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +0.9% in the last 12 months.
MOGU Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -11.9% 1Y revenue growth and -4.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -25.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 3 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for MOGU Inc. include: -67.4% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.94x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.