MODEL VERDICT
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $81.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $79.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $78.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $82.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $83.22 | Below threshold | -1.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $93.01 | +13.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $75.69 | -7.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $78.82 | -3.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $73.62 | -9.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $64.36 | -21.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $70.20 | -14.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $82.35 | +0.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $107.49 | +31.6% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 185.23 | 215.78 | 37.42 | 302.49 | 135.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 85.28 | 96.71 | 33.84 | 154.25 | 49.55 |
| P/FCF | 67.56 | 52.93 | 30.83 | 117.45 | 31.09 |
| P/FFO | 105.25 | 122.48 | 15.24 | 204.89 | 73.95 |
| P/AFFO | 253.52 | 227.31 | 15.86 | 743.21 | 259.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.26 | 3.70 | 1.88 | 6.94 | 2.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.77 | 11.91 | 5.48 | 19.71 | 5.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates MRVL's fair value at $107.49 vs the current price of $81.69, implying +31.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $107.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.90 (P10) to $131.99 (P90), with a median of $104.41.
MRVL's current P/E of -80.1x compares to the industry median of 43.0x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -286.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
71 analysts cover MRVL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $117.68 (range: $80.00 — $156.00), implying +44.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (54), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MRVL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.