MODEL VERDICT
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $164.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $164.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $139.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $134.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $128.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $187.04 | +13.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $132.15 | -19.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $162.08 | -1.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $94.38 | -42.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $103.59 | -37.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $101.19 | -38.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $104.01 | -36.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $97.05 | -41.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $140.11 | -15.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $80.12 | -51.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.93 | -6.1% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $147 | $160 | $172 | $185 | $198 |
| Conservative (7%) | $150 | $163 | $177 | $190 | $203 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $155 | $169 | $182 | $196 | $209 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $160 | $174 | $188 | $202 | $216 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 121.01 | 109.83 | 37.42 | 215.78 | 89.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 95.96 | 109.83 | 33.84 | 154.25 | 44.74 |
| P/FCF | 77.83 | 83.85 | 46.67 | 117.45 | 28.72 |
| P/FFO | 92.92 | 41.79 | 15.24 | 204.89 | 77.69 |
| P/TBV | 101.19 | 99.87 | 96.18 | 107.52 | 5.78 |
| P/AFFO | 216.30 | 50.21 | 15.86 | 743.21 | 269.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.39 | 5.48 | 1.88 | 10.03 | 2.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.49 | 12.75 | 6.61 | 19.71 | 4.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates MRVL's fair value at $154.93 vs the current price of $164.95, implying -6.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $124.45 (P10) to $182.73 (P90), with a median of $152.68.
MRVL's current P/E of 53.7x compares to the industry median of 52.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +1.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
72 analysts cover MRVL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $129.52 (range: $85.00 — $170.00), implying -21.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (59), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MRVL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9350.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.