Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$81.69
→
Intrinsic$57.55
-30%
$37.19$57.55$98.00
Market implies 34% growth for 5 years
MRVL trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $82, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (34%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $37 → Bull $98. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $74 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| 10% | $49 | $53 | $58 | $62 |
| 12% | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| 14% | $28 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($98) offers 20% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($37) implies 54% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 34% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 30% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.74B
Year 2$2.17B
Year 3$2.71B
Year 4$3.39B
Year 5$4.24B
Terminal$67.20B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.39BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.