MODEL VERDICT
Studio City International Holdings Limited (MSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.92 | CURRENT | -9.6% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.01 | Pending | -11.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.28 | Pending | -14.3% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.48 | Monitoring | -19.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.43 | Monitoring | -13.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $25.85 | +785.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $36.39 | +1146.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 22 industry peers | $14.69 | +403.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Sales 24 industry peers | $22.09 | +656.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 22 industry peers | $36.39 | +1146.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.86 | +785.7% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 31.37 | 14.71 | 13.30 | 66.11 | 30.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.08 | 8.15 | 6.70 | 17.33 | 5.01 |
| P/FFO | 5.62 | 5.64 | 2.51 | 8.70 | 2.53 |
| P/TBV | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 1.15 | 0.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 1.03 | 0.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.20 | 1.40 | 0.43 | 25.26 | 9.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates MSC's fair value at $25.86 vs the current price of $2.92, implying +785.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.17 (P10) to $30.34 (P90), with a median of $22.74.
MSC's current P/E of -1.5x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -105.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover MSC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MSC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.