MODEL VERDICT
MSCI Inc. (MSCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $588.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $592.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $568.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $560.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $536.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $449.36 | -23.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $630.73 | +7.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $449.35 | -23.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $440.79 | -25.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $562.23 | -4.5% | 100% | 75 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $532 | $581 | $631 | $681 | $731 |
| Conservative (11%) | $553 | $605 | $656 | $708 | $760 |
| Base Case (16.9%) | $582 | $637 | $691 | $746 | $800 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $611 | $669 | $726 | $783 | $841 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.80 | 42.71 | 36.87 | 70.42 | 13.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.28 | 33.49 | 29.42 | 53.12 | 9.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.01 | 30.69 | 25.95 | 44.79 | 6.88 |
| P/FCF | 39.79 | 36.95 | 28.62 | 57.91 | 10.42 |
| P/FFO | 40.67 | 36.02 | 31.21 | 59.47 | 10.96 |
| P/AFFO | 43.62 | 39.47 | 32.10 | 63.35 | 11.76 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.12 | 16.80 | 14.15 | 25.03 | 4.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates MSCI's fair value at $562.23 vs the current price of $588.85, implying -4.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $562.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $489.09 (P10) to $626.98 (P90), with a median of $557.65.
MSCI's current P/E of 37.8x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +31.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover MSCI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $674.33 (range: $618.00 — $730.00), implying +14.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (17), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MSCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (38.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2630.0% to approximately $744. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.