MODEL VERDICT
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $63.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $63.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $62.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $60.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $55.01 | Below threshold | +10.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $28.88 | -54.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $14.21 | -77.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $20.91 | -66.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $33.19 | -47.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $20.26 | -67.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $16.02 | -74.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $14.12 | -77.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $22.82 | -63.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $20.91 | -66.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $33.19 | -47.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $197.31 | +212.5% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 68× | 75× | 82× (Current) | 89× | 96× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $53 | $59 | $64 | $70 | $75 |
| Conservative (5%) | $55 | $61 | $66 | $72 | $78 |
| Base Case (-35.9%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Bull Case (-49%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.58 | 18.17 | 11.99 | 69.99 | 27.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 1597.55 | 21.93 | 6.93 | 7907.55 | 3527.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.60 | 16.69 | 6.00 | 45.67 | 15.04 |
| P/FCF | 285.44 | 25.38 | 13.47 | 1340.50 | 589.82 |
| P/FFO | 14.16 | 10.27 | 8.73 | 27.36 | 8.84 |
| P/AFFO | 17.16 | 11.51 | 9.94 | 35.69 | 12.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.78 | 2.93 | 1.80 | 20.78 | 7.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MSGE's fair value at $197.31 vs the current price of $63.14, implying +212.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $197.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.89 (P10) to $675.52 (P90), with a median of $239.77.
MSGE's current P/E of 82.0x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +202.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.6x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover MSGE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $66.00 (range: $59.00 — $74.00), implying +4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MSGE trades at the 7780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MSGE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5590.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.