MODEL VERDICT
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB-PJ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $210.64 | +691.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $234.27 | +780.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $200.82 | +654.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $176.34 | +562.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $210.64 | +691.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $214.27 | +704.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $217.79 | +718.1% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $60 | $60 | $60 | $60 | $90 |
| Conservative (5%) | $61 | $61 | $61 | $61 | $92 |
| Base Case (1.3%) | $59 | $59 | $59 | $59 | $89 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $60 | $60 | $60 | $60 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTB-PJ's fair value at $217.79 vs the current price of $26.62, implying +718.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $217.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $199.38 (P10) to $224.42 (P90), with a median of $211.58.
MTB-PJ's current P/E of 1.8x compares to the industry median of 14.4x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -87.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for MTB-PJ.
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTB-PJ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2240.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.