MODEL VERDICT
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $125.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $119.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $133.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $128.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $127.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $87.18 | -30.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $165.10 | +31.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $160.13 | +27.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $158.16 | +25.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $112.26 | -10.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $125.29 | -0.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $664.95 | +428.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $183.23 | +45.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $182.22 | +44.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $155.31 | +23.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $131.47 | +4.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $167.19 | +32.8% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $108 | $124 | $141 | $158 | $174 |
| Conservative (17%) | $114 | $132 | $149 | $167 | $184 |
| Base Case (25.5%) | $123 | $142 | $161 | $180 | $198 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $132 | $152 | $172 | $192 | $213 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.59 | 31.91 | 17.64 | 115.27 | 40.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.49 | 20.82 | 13.84 | 61.43 | 19.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.82 | 14.15 | 9.28 | 29.63 | 8.13 |
| P/FCF | 26.49 | 22.32 | 15.46 | 51.17 | 12.27 |
| P/FFO | 20.20 | 16.15 | 8.57 | 35.19 | 9.93 |
| P/AFFO | 35.14 | 30.16 | 14.48 | 64.70 | 17.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.50 | 6.55 | 5.25 | 7.44 | 0.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.01 | 3.84 | 1.67 | 7.01 | 1.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTN's fair value at $167.19 vs the current price of $125.86, implying +32.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $167.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $157.98 (P10) to $247.35 (P90), with a median of $200.64.
MTN's current P/E of 16.7x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -21.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
48 analysts cover MTN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $169.50 (range: $139.00 — $234.00), implying +34.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.9% is 8.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (18.0%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$886. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 60360.0% to approximately $886. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.