MODEL VERDICT
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $18.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $19.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $19.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $19.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.09 | Pending | +12.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $2283.18 | +12148.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $3022.99 | +16117.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $3129.86 | +16691.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $1505.30 | +7975.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $2277.59 | +12118.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $2048.15 | +10887.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1797.10 | +9541.1% | 100% | 92 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $2513 | $2872 | $3231 | $3590 | $3949 |
| Conservative (20%) | $2688 | $3072 | $3456 | $3840 | $4224 |
| Base Case (31.4%) | $2934 | $3353 | $3772 | $4191 | $4610 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $3179 | $3633 | $4088 | $4542 | $4996 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| P/FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/FFO | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 3.90 | 3.87 | 2.89 | 5.32 | 0.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MUFG's fair value at $1797.10 vs the current price of $18.64, implying +9541.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1797.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1428.15 (P10) to $1684.86 (P90), with a median of $1555.69.
MUFG's current P/E of 18.3x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +27.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
2 analysts cover MUFG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MUFG trades at the 8100th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MUFG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2480.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.