MODEL VERDICT
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $390.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $389.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $407.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $363.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $427.09 | Below threshold | -13.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $529.99 | +35.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $550.70 | +40.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $706.15 | +80.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $433.69 | +11.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $517.63 | +32.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $306.40 | -21.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $679.09 | +73.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $1435.80 | +267.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $1281.18 | +227.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $706.15 | +80.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $450.84 | +15.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $561.14 | +43.6% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $333 | $389 | $444 | $500 | $555 |
| Conservative (25%) | $360 | $420 | $480 | $540 | $601 |
| Base Case (37.8%) | $399 | $465 | $532 | $598 | $664 |
| Bull Case (51%) | $437 | $510 | $582 | $655 | $728 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.86 | 13.35 | 9.95 | 24.07 | 5.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.38 | 11.94 | 8.66 | 17.92 | 3.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.03 | 8.90 | 6.71 | 12.90 | 2.26 |
| P/FCF | 17.76 | 13.00 | 9.71 | 34.35 | 9.34 |
| P/FFO | 9.47 | 8.66 | 7.03 | 13.93 | 2.66 |
| P/TBV | 16.73 | 15.66 | 3.13 | 38.86 | 13.59 |
| P/AFFO | 20.75 | 17.20 | 11.33 | 35.76 | 10.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.37 | 6.57 | 3.13 | 12.45 | 3.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MUSA's fair value at $561.14 vs the current price of $390.74, implying +43.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $561.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $441.99 (P10) to $614.33 (P90), with a median of $527.50.
MUSA's current P/E of 16.2x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -44.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover MUSA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $451.25 (range: $410.00 — $500.00), implying +15.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MUSA trades at the 2780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MUSA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3100.0% to approximately $512. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.