MODEL VERDICT
NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $44.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $44.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $45.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $44.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $44.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $68.49 | +53.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $64.79 | +45.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $53.16 | +19.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $40.94 | -8.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $118.44 | +166.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $40.58 | -8.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $138.72 | +211.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $141.91 | +218.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $52.76 | +18.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $39.45 | -11.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.56 | +45.0% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $43 | $48 | $52 | $57 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $40 | $45 | $49 | $54 | $59 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $41 | $46 | $51 | $56 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 13.29 | 11.48 | 5.54 | 22.84 | 8.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.51 | 8.57 | 5.54 | 11.43 | 2.94 |
| P/FCF | 10.67 | 12.05 | 7.69 | 12.28 | 2.59 |
| P/FFO | 16.07 | 14.29 | 6.56 | 27.36 | 10.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.56 | 7.17 | 5.98 | 9.53 | 1.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.66 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates NATL's fair value at $64.56 vs the current price of $44.52, implying +45.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.21 (P10) to $70.67 (P90), with a median of $62.75.
NATL's current P/E of 20.8x compares to the industry median of 24.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -16.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover NATL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $50.40 (range: $50.40 — $50.40), implying +13.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NATL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (0.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9490.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.