MODEL VERDICT
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $91.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $89.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $88.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $88.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $89.80 | -1.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $80.90 | -11.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $85.25 | -6.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $89.80 | -1.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $93.18 | +2.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.34 | -6.6% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $84 | $90 | $97 | $103 | $110 |
| Conservative (7%) | $86 | $93 | $99 | $106 | $112 |
| Base Case (10.7%) | $89 | $96 | $103 | $109 | $116 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $92 | $99 | $106 | $113 | $120 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.03 | 27.95 | 23.03 | 40.06 | 5.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.56 | 23.89 | 18.76 | 29.27 | 3.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.62 | 21.03 | 17.62 | 23.96 | 2.42 |
| P/FCF | 24.79 | 21.39 | 19.22 | 38.43 | 6.87 |
| P/FFO | 22.10 | 22.09 | 18.55 | 25.88 | 2.56 |
| P/AFFO | 25.18 | 24.81 | 21.36 | 29.40 | 2.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.06 | 4.00 | 2.73 | 5.52 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.26 | 4.91 | 3.94 | 6.81 | 1.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates NDAQ's fair value at $85.34 vs the current price of $91.32, implying -6.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $80.08 (P10) to $94.52 (P90), with a median of $87.29.
NDAQ's current P/E of 29.6x compares to the industry median of 29.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +1.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
36 analysts cover NDAQ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $114.60 (range: $109.00 — $120.00), implying +25.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 21.8% is 3.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (18.2%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$75. (2) Multiple compression: NDAQ trades at the 5450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NDAQ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1800.0% to approximately $75. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.