MODEL VERDICT
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (NFBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $14.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $13.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $13.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $14.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $13.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $11.05 | -21.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $16.58 | +17.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $18.16 | +29.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $14.36 | +2.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $11.01 | -21.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $14.88 | +5.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.84 | -1.5% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (-3.3%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.14 | 15.94 | 11.14 | 19.95 | 2.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.31 | 22.81 | 11.93 | 29.29 | 5.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.60 | 19.56 | 10.97 | 25.08 | 4.65 |
| P/FCF | 13.07 | 12.66 | 9.04 | 16.83 | 2.67 |
| P/FFO | 12.73 | 12.65 | 9.96 | 16.28 | 2.24 |
| P/TBV | 0.98 | 1.02 | 0.73 | 1.22 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 13.49 | 13.04 | 10.17 | 17.57 | 2.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.69 | 1.15 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.49 | 3.89 | 1.92 | 4.45 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NFBK's fair value at $13.84 vs the current price of $14.06, implying -1.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.08 (P10) to $15.36 (P90), with a median of $14.22.
NFBK's current P/E of 19.5x compares to the industry median of 15.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +27.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
9 analysts cover NFBK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.50 (range: $14.50 — $14.50), implying +3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NFBK trades at the 8950th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NFBK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5630.0% to approximately $22. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.