MODEL VERDICT
NL Industries, Inc. (NL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.18 | CURRENT | -3.4% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.25 | Pending | -5.0% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.30 | Pending | -7.6% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.42 | Pending | -9.5% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.56 | Monitoring | -11.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $13.29 | +115.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $13.32 | +115.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $34.92 | +465.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $9.35 | +51.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $15.67 | +153.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $14.85 | +140.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $37.88 | +512.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $9.18 | +48.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $3.72 | -39.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $34.90 | +464.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $9.79 | +58.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.39 | +149.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $6 | $6 | $6 | $9 | $12 |
| Conservative (14%) | $6 | $6 | $6 | $9 | $13 |
| Base Case (21.1%) | $7 | $7 | $7 | $10 | $13 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $7 | $7 | $7 | $11 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.17 | 7.38 | 5.63 | 15.93 | 4.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.24 | 3.46 | 2.09 | 6.57 | 2.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.60 | 14.94 | 3.51 | 29.56 | 8.71 |
| P/FCF | 14.00 | 13.49 | 7.64 | 26.72 | 6.41 |
| P/FFO | 33.85 | 7.68 | 4.16 | 164.52 | 64.08 |
| P/TBV | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.62 | 1.01 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 92.37 | 8.48 | 4.23 | 512.00 | 205.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.98 | 2.00 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NL's fair value at $15.39 vs the current price of $6.18, implying +149.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.95 (P10) to $16.52 (P90), with a median of $14.71.
NL's current P/E of 4.5x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -82.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover NL with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying -2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (16.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 44080.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.